CNN/TIME/ORC Republican poll

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82 hours ago
Courtesy of Time

Topline Results of Nov. 29-Dec. 6, 2011, CNN/TIME/ORC Poll

FLORIDA

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 446 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Gingrich 48%
Romney 25%
Paul 5%
Bachmann 3%
Huntsman 3%
Perry 3%
Santorum 1%
Someone else (vol.) 1%
None/ No one (vol.) 3%
No opinion 7%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Definitely support 37%
Might change mind 53%
No opinion 10%

(PHOTOS: Newt Gingrich’s Life in Pictures)

IOWA

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 419 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO ATTEND THE IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN THEIR COMMUNITY. — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential caucus in your community were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Gingrich 33%
Romney 20%
Paul 17%
Perry 9%
Bachmann 7%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 5%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Definitely support 39%
Might change mind 55%
No opinion 7%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 507 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Romney 35%
Gingrich 26%
Paul 17%
Huntsman 8%
Bachmann 3%
Perry 2%
Santorum 2%
Someone else (vol.) 1%
None/ No one (vol.) 1%
No opinion 6%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Definitely support 44%
Might change mind 48%
No opinion 8%

(PHOTOS: A Rich History of Mitt Romney)

SOUTH CAROLINA

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 510 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Gingrich 43%
Romney 20%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 6%
Paul 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) *
No opinion 11%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Definitely support 34%
Might change mind 55%
No opinion 11%

METHODOLOGY

In Florida, a total of 583 registered Republicans were interviewed by telephone, including 446 likely voters. Sample was drawn from the complete list of registered Republican voters provided by the Florida Secretary of State and weighted to reflect the statewide totals for all registered Republicans for gender, race, age, amount of time registered at the current address, region of the state, and population parameters of the respondents’ zip codes. Likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to vote in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and voting history as provided by the Florida Secretary of State. Only registered Republicans can participate in the Florida Republican presidential primary.

In Iowa, a total of 783 registered Republicans were interviewed by telephone including 419 likely voters. Sample was drawn from the complete list of registered Republican voters provided by the Iowa Secretary of State and weighted to reflect the statewide totals for all registered Republicans for gender, age, amount of time registered at the current address, region of the state, and population parameters of the respondents’ zip codes. Likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and voting history as provided by the respondent and the Iowa Secretary of State. Only registered Republicans can participate in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

In New Hampshire, a total of 1,503 adults were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 507 likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history. Registered Republicans and registered independents (undeclared) can participate in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

In South Carolina, a total of 1,505 adults were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 510 likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history. South Carolina has no party registration.

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/topline-results-of-nov-29-dec-6-2011-cnntimeorc-poll/#ixzz1ftT6pjqg

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